April 30, 2014

Japan Residential PV Program is Over for Good!

Japan Photovoltaic Expansion Center, J-PAC, released the latest data on the national residential PV rebate program.  Considering the federal government ended the long-run rebate program at the end of March for good, the installation capacity in the first quarter of 2014 was just over 260 MW, almost 100 MW less than the same quarter in the previous year.

During the fiscal year 2013 (FY2013), the government provided a rebate of 20 yen/watt for the installed system cost below 400 yen/watt and 15 yen/watt for the system cost below 500 yen/watt and above 400 yen/watt.

According to J-PAC, the average system cost for retrofit systems was 414 yen/watt while that for new homes was 378 yen/watt. Compared to the same quarter in the previous year, the installed system price for retrofit systems came down by 10% and that for new homes was down by 9%.


Japan residential PV average system cost by quarter



Although the program didn’t receive rush applications toward the end of the fiscal year, over 1.3 GW worth of residential PV systems was supported by the national rebate program during FY2013.

A big question is whether the Japanese residential PV market can continue growing without the capacity-based incentive moving-forward...

Background of the national residential PV rebate program

In 1994, the Japanese government launched the Residential PV System Dissemination Program, which provided up-front cash rebates. Between 1994 and 2005, it funded total installations of over 930MW, comprising over 250,000 residential PV systems. During this period, Japan dominated the world PV market in terms of both production and installation.

After 12 years, the federal government thought that the PV market was self-sufficient and discontinued the residential incentive program, while Germany and several other countries moved ahead with national FIT policies. 

In 2006, Japan saw its first ever decrease in the annual PV market; it declined further to 230MW in 2007, and remained at about the same level in 2008. The market decline was due not only to lack of incentives, but also to lack of domestically-available modules, since Japanese module makers focused on exporting to Europe, where profit margins were much higher.

To stop the market from further decline, the federal government re-launched the national residential incentive program in January 2009.

In July 2011, the Japanese government finally launched the feed-in tariff program, specifically to accelerate the growth of non-residential segment.  Thanks to the high premium rate, the non-residential segment has grown explosively for the last few years.

The government considered the residential PV segment as a mature market and decided to end the national up-front rebate program at the end of fiscal year 2013 (ending March 31, 2014).